Preparing for the future

Aside from predictions, the next few weeks will see a number of persons giving advice on how to prosper or survive during the coming year. These advice will range from the spiritual to the inspirational to the more “how to” lists. Some will be even more specific as in the case of Chinese astrology and feng shui. Almost all of these advice are simply deleted or forgotten the following day. Most readers have the same reaction: “ I know that!”

I hope my readers will forgive me if I join this cavalcade of advice giving. But my advice are based on some books that I read or re-read  the past year that have impressed me to the extent that I have kept them in my library. So here goes my advice column:

Think and make decisions strategically

Our day to day life – both work and social – requires that we make a constant stream of decisions. Think of all the fateful choices we have to make – what career to follow, whom to marry, how to bring up children, how to manage a business, whether to migrate or stay home and whether or not you will join a political movement.

The important thing to remember is that you do not act in a vacuum because the world is full of other decision makers whose choices interact or even conflict with yours. This interaction or conflict has an important effect on your thinking and actions.

In their book THINKING STRATEGICALLY: The Competitive Edge in Business, Politics, and Everyday Life, the authors Avinash Dixit and Barry Nalebuff wrote in the introduction:

“ To illustrate the point, think of the difference between the decisions of a lumberjack and those of a general. When the lumberjack decides how to chop wood, he does not expect the wood to fight back; his environment is neutral. But when the general tries to cut down the enemy’s army, he must anticipate and overcome resistance to his plan.

Like the general, you must recognize that your business rivals, prospective spouses and even your child are intelligent and purposive people. Their aims often conflict with yours, but they include some potential allies. Your own choice must allow for the conflict, and utilize the cooperation. Such interactive decisions are called strategic, and the plan of action appropriate to them is called a strategy. “

The book was written in 1990 but is still worth remembering. The authors state, at the start, the book is limited. They said: “How should people behave in society? Our answer does not deal with ethics or etiquette...This book is about strategic behavior.”

The combination of strategic and ethical behavio                                                                                                                                                                r is the best preparation for the future.

Prepare for seventh sense thinking

In his book The Seventh Sense: Power, Fortune and Survival in the Age of Networks, Joshua Ramo tells us to prepare for “...a new story of revolution and riches in a connected age.” In the introduction, the publishers wrote:

“ Endless terror. An unfixable global economy. Surprising election results. New billion dollar fortunes. Miracle medical advance. What if they were all connected? What if you could understand why? The “Seventh Sense” examines the historic force now shaking our world – and explains how our leaders, our business, and each of us can master it.

All around us now we are surrounded by events that are difficult to understand. But every day, new figures and forces emerge that seemed to have mastered this tumultuous age. Sometimes these are leaders of the most earthshaking companies of our time, accumulating billion dollar fortunes. Or they are successful investors or our best generals. Other times however, quick success is going to terrorists, rebels, and figures intent on chaos.

The secret to power now is understanding our age of networks – not merely the Internet but also networks of trade and DNA and finance”

Fareed Zakaria wrote: “ The central new reality of the world we live in today is connectivity. People, computers, other machines, almost everything is getting linked, and these new networks are spewing oceans of information. How should we navigate this brave new world? Ramo writes with ease and authority about the technology, history and foreign policy of this power shift, giving us an essential guide for the future.”

Ramo writes that in this time of disruption we need “seventh sense “ thinking – the ability to discern how things connect to other things in nodes and networks  or “ to look at any object and see the way in which it is changed by connection.”

One line in the book is a quote by Ramo of the philosopher Paul Virilio who said: “ When you invent the ship, you also  invent the shipwreck.” The Youtube has become a vehicle for instant celebrities but also a recruiting tool for terrorists. The Facebook connects us to friends and relatives all over the world; but has also become the tool for spreading false news.

There is a new world – the age of networks – and we need to prepare ourselves for this new age of the unthinkable.

Prepare for the unprecedented..

Unprecedented refers to things that are not known, experienced or done before.  It is the opposite of the word “precedent” which refers to something done or said that is used as an example to be followed in the future.

Lawyers love the word “precedent” which refers to a legal decision that is used as a standard in future cases. Business and political leaders like to refer to “experience” as proof that they can make the right decisions based on past experiences.

In thinking of 2017 I prefer to quote columnist Joel Stein: “ I don’t have a lot of faith in predictions anymore, since they are based on historical data and can’t calculate for hige new events. So the only 2017 prediction I feel totally comfortable making is that we’re going to hear an unprecedented amount of the word unprecedented.”

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