Barclays sees inflation easing to 4.8% in Aug

MANILA, Philippines - The country’s inflation may decelerate to 4.8 percent in August from the previous month on the back of some moderation in the prices of basic commodities, UK-based investment bank Barclays said.

 “Some moderation in food prices, coupled with sticky core inflation should keep inflation close to the upper end of the target band,” Barclays said in its Emerging Markets Weekly report.

This forecast is slower than the 33-year month high of 4.9 percent registered last month, which was largely driven by soaring food prices and hikes in utility rates and transportation fares.

The bank’s projection is also within the Bangko Sentral ng PIlipinas’ forecast of 4.7 to 5.5 percent for this month.

The central bank last week said the forecast takes into account recent increases in a number of food products and hikes in power rates amid weather-related supply and distribution constraints. However, these will be tempered by lower pump prices during the month.

Official August inflation data will be released on Friday, Sept. 5.

In the seven months to July, inflation averaged 4.3 percent, above the midpoint of the central bank’s three to five percent target range.

The BSP last month hiked key policy rates to ensure inflation expectations remain anchored. The central bank has also raised reserve requirement ratios and the special deposit account facility rate in order to rein in liquidity growth.

The central bank has said it is ready to deploy additional measures if necessary to keep inflation within target.

The BSP’s next policy meeting is on Sept. 11.